Dollar Falls as July CPI Closes First Oil-Shock Chapter — August Opens the Next
Dollar weakened broadly after July CPI matched expectations, with headline inflation slowing from 3.5% to 3.4% y/y and core easing from 2.6% to 2.5%. September hold odds rose to around 58% from roughly 51% a day earlier. Core inflation has now fully round-tripped back to exactly where it stood before the Iran war first disrupted energy markets.
Bitcoin Grinds Toward $60K as the CLARITY Act Catalyst Shifts to September 15
Bitcoin is drifting toward the psychologically important $60,000 level in a bearish holding pattern, with September 15's procedural cloture vote on the CLARITY Act setting up an asymmetric outcome — failure would be a clean negative signal, while success would only keep the legislative process moving.
Gold Is Betting $90 Oil Won’t Force the Fed Back to Tightening. CPI Is the First Check.
Gold has kept climbing even as Brent rebounded from $70 toward $90, a divergence that reflects markets betting the Fed won't tighten again without proof oil is feeding into core inflation — and Wednesday's CPI is the first test of that bet.
Three FX Winners, Two Trades: RBA Lifts Aussie While Oil Backs Dollar and Loonie
Three currencies sit at the top of Tuesday's FX board, but they aren't telling one story. Australian Dollar strengthened because the RBA refused to declare its tightening cycle finished, while US and Canadian Dollars benefited as Brent briefly broke above $90 before easing back toward $87-88.
