Brent pushed through $99 on a confirmed Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia and a more specific Iranian exclusion-zone threat, giving this spike more concrete backing than prior ones — but whether it’s genuinely different will likely be decided at 104.23, where both the fundamental and technical stories face their real confirmation test.
Strong Japanese GDP and wage data have pushed a September BoJ hike to near-certainty, and while AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are both falling on Yen strength, the underlying stories differ — Australia’s hawkish RBA narrative is meeting domestic resistance, while New Zealand’s tightening path has failed to convince markets it will extend.
Yen surged roughly 1% against every major currency on Monday, with USD/JPY breaking through 155, a level that had repeatedly marked the floor after Japan's earlier intervention episodes this year, extending Yen's cumulative gain against Dollar to around 3.3% over the first five trading sessions of September.
Friday’s US CPI can push Gold toward either edge of its 4,230–4,697 range, but the Fed’s expected rate peak, oil’s physical normalization, and the Dollar debasement trade are all bigger stories than one inflation print — and only those can actually break the range.