Dollar Slides on Softer PCE, Aussie Lags as Sterling Extends BoE Rally
Sterling rallied, Dollar fell and Aussie fell even harder. The difference was not the data alone, but where each central bank already stood before the numbers arrived.
Sterling Broadens Gains as BoE Repricing Builds and UK GDP Confirms Resilience; EUR/GBP Presses Breakdown, GBP/CHF Tests Breakout
Sterling's rally started before today's stronger UK GDP data—markets now price an 89.2% probability of a November BoE hike and a terminal rate near 4.86%, with GDP confirming the hawkish repricing already underway rather than triggering it.
Why Are EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY Breaking When USD/JPY Is Barely Moving?
EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY have broken key technical support this week, but the weekly performance breakdown shows only 0.1–0.3 percentage points of that weakness comes from genuine Yen strength—the rest reflects Dollar and Yen as the two strongest majors, with intervention risk capping USD/JPY and forcing Euro, Aussie, Sterling and Kiwi weakness to pass directly into their Yen crosses.
Dollar Rally Stalls as Yields and Oil Retreat Ahead of PCE, ISM and NFP
DXY has reached 101.30 and is testing 101.63–101.80 resistance near a two-month high, but the rally's momentum is flattening as two of its immediate tailwinds fade, the 10-year Treasury yield has retreated after testing the 5.24% area Monday, and oil has also pulled back. Neither move reverses the broader inflation-and-rates story, but both remove the marginal support that had been pushing Fed expectations and the Dollar higher.
