Gold is stalling just below 4,400 even as oil retreats and the Dollar’s post-FOMC rally loses steam, leaving India’s distorted physical demand as a plausible but unconfirmed partial explanation for the muted rebound.

Australia’s Big Four banks now all expect a September RBA hike to 4.60%, but the real disagreement has shifted to how high the cash rate ultimately needs to go—a question AUD/NZD, already stretched near 1.25, won’t settle until October 28 CPI.

Fed Chair Warsh’s description of Wednesday’s hike as removing “a dose of accommodation” drove the 2-year Treasury yield and Dollar Index sharply higher, but Fed funds futures barely moved the expected destination of the tightening cycle—leaving Brent’s $100 test as the upstream variable that decides whether the front end’s repricing gets confirmed.