Brent Oil Drops Below $98, Easing Yields and French Stress as Euro Rebounds
Brent crude fell below $98 on Tuesday on improving Middle East supply availability, the planned G7 release of emergency stocks and Saudi Arabia’s unexpectedly aggressive cut to November crude prices for Asian buyers. Lower oil eased inflation-risk pressure, sovereign yields moved lower and the Dollar’s advance paused. EUR/USD rebounded to around 1.127 and the French-German 10-year spread narrowed back toward 130bp.
USD/CAD Rally Reaches 61.8% Test as Fed Minutes and Canada Jobs Loom
USD/CAD has rallied from 1.3730 to 1.4292, stalling right at the 61.8% retracement (1.4290) of the 1.4791–1.3480 decline, with Wednesday's FOMC minutes and Friday's Canadian jobs report now standing directly in front of the next directional break.
French Risk Pushes EUR/USD to Key 1.1185 Fibonacci Projection—What If It Breaks?
Neither interest-rate differentials nor a generalized Eurozone panic explain the move; it is French-specific risk with broader Euro implications. A decisive loss of 1.1185 would strengthen the case that the decline from 1.2081 is developing into an impulsive medium-term downtrend, with the current leg from 1.1710 potentially entering its strongest phase.
Nikkei Eyes Record High, But Four Forces Stand Between USD/JPY and 164
The Nikkei 225 is closing in on a fresh record near 72,831.73, but unlike June's rally—when USD/JPY ran alongside it to 163.97—a faster BoJ tightening cadence, a more patient Fed, credible intervention risk and the absence of a fresh oil shock mean USD/JPY is unlikely to follow through the 160 zone this time.
