Weak US ADP employment data (44k, well below expectations) reinforced the market's already-building conviction that the Fed has room to hold rates, a narrative driven primarily by growing optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon and ease energy-driven inflation risk.
AUD/USD is rallying on improving risk sentiment and a softer Dollar, but the same falling oil prices driving that optimism are also weakening two of Australia's own fundamental supports — explaining why the pair has lagged the broader market risk momentum.
Silver has returned above $60 as growing optimism over a Strait of Hormuz reopening pulls oil lower, reshapes Fed rate expectations, and drags Treasury yields down — with silver carrying an extra industrial-demand tailwind gold doesn't have.
Why Brent's failure to break below $80 reveals lingering doubt about Bessent's Hormuz optimism
What's happening: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and Iran...