EUR/CAD Slides to 15-Month Low as BoC Reinforces Loonie Rally — Is 1.5000 Coming Into View?
EUR/CAD broke to a 15-month low after the BoC hiked to 2.50% and sharply revised its inflation forecast higher, reinforcing a Canadian Dollar rally that was already underway. With OIS pricing ~52% odds of a December follow-up hike and the cross testing 1.5414 support, a break opens the door toward the psychological 1.5000 level.
Gold Barely Reacts to Fed Hold — Is a Break Below $3,975 Coming?
Gold traded around $4,040 Thursday, showing little lasting reaction to the Fed's expected hold at 3.75–4.00%—even after Governor Lisa Cook's surprise dissent for an immediate hike. With December tightening already 88% priced, today's US Q3 GDP and PCE inflation data are the next real catalyst for whether $3,975.49 support holds or gives way toward $3,942.71 and below.
UK Budget Shrinks Fiscal Buffer Without Market Shock; Fed Dissent in Focus
Sterling and UK gilts showed little reaction to Chancellor John Healey’s Budget, despite higher borrowing forecasts and a reduction in fiscal headroom. The remaining buffer against the fiscal rule fell from £23.6B in March to £15B, broadly matching market expectations. Attention is shifting to today’s Fed decision, where a hold is overwhelmingly priced at 90.6%, but the voting split could reveal whether pressure for faster tightening is building.
AUD/NZD Breaks Higher as RBNZ Surprise Widens RBA Policy Divergence
AUD/NZD surged through 1.2489/93 resistance after two policy shocks 30 minutes apart: Australia's CPI jumped to 4.3%, reinforcing a November RBA hike, while the RBNZ unexpectedly held at 2.75% in a narrow 4–3 vote. The move is overwhelmingly an NZD story—not an AUD one—with the cross now targeting 1.2624 and potentially 1.2845.
