The immediate equity-market retreat may be stabilizing, but geopolitical and sovereign risks have yet to ease materially. Oil markets are increasingly concerned with reports of possible US-Israeli strikes against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, particularly as supply buffers remain limited and regional security threats continue. In Europe, France’s private-sector activity has returned to contraction, compounding fiscal and political concerns ahead of Moody’s scheduled rating review.
Gold briefly traded below $4,000 even as the US 10-year yield fell ~17bps to 4.96% on a tech-led equity selloff—a breakdown in the usual rate relationship that points to liquidity and positioning pressures, and possibly forced liquidation. The break below 4,066.21 support puts the 3,942–3,924 zone in immediate focus, with a deeper risk toward 3,750 if selling accelerates.
Technology stocks are falling across Asia and Europe, with Nasdaq-100 futures down around 1.8–1.9%, as investors question the financing and returns of AI investment. Yen and Swiss Franc lead, while Aussie and Kiwi are weakest.
Yen is the top-performing major currency as Asian tech and semiconductor stocks sell off sharply and China stimulus hopes fade. AUD/JPY has been rejected at the 111.04–111.19 resistance zone and broken below 110.37 support, suggesting its rebound from 108.62 may already be over, while USD/JPY's 156.36 level holds the key to a broader bearish reversal.