Four Market Trends — Stocks, Oil, Yields and Dollar — Remain Unsettled After Midterm Swings
The US midterms set off sharp swings across stocks, oil, Treasury yields and the Dollar last week, but they did not settle any of the four trends, which were already forming before the vote. With AI investment concerns, Iran-related risk and Fed expectations all pulling in different directions, each market ended the week at a technical decision point.
Strong US Jobs Lift Dollar and Yields, but Tech Rebound Faces the Real Test
October nonfarm payrolls rose 165K against the 56K consensus, unemployment fell from 4.2% to 4.1% and average hourly earnings strengthened to 0.4% mom. The report strengthens the case for further Fed tightening, but it does not resolve the separate concerns about AI valuations, investment returns and financing risks. Higher Treasury yields add pressure on growth stocks, so whether the tentative technology rebound survives the US cash session is the more consequential question for market sentiment.
Nikkei Enters Bear Market as Asian Rout Hits Aussie — AUD/JPY and AUD/USD Break Support
The Nikkei closed down 5.96% at 57,434.77, entering a bear market, while KOSPI fell 6.02% and TAIEX 4.51%. AUD/JPY and AUD/USD broke key support as the Aussie and Kiwi took the heaviest currency losses, yet the Yen and Won stayed comparatively stable, suggesting the shock is still concentrated in equities and risk-sensitive currencies.
NFP to Test Fed’s 2027 Rate Repricing as Dollar Holds Critical Support
Today's US Nonfarm Payrolls report (forecast +56K, unemployment 4.2%) lands after markets scaled back 2027 Fed hike expectations while keeping a December increase at 68.4%. The Dollar Index has held support at 101.285–101.232 despite falling Treasury yields, and NFP will test whether that resilience can last.
