Gold's failed rebound favors a retest of the early-November low near 3,870, but a decisive breakdown may have to wait. Hawkish Fed repricing has already done much of its work, leaving little room for another big shift in rate expectations before the December 4 payrolls unless a fresh catalyst arrives.
Global markets are showing two distinct signs of recovery as strong results from CoreWeave revive confidence in AI-related equities, while hawkish Fed expectations continue to support Dollar’s rally. The two moves respond to different developments, so they can coexist, but higher yields could eventually weigh on technology valuations and AI financing. Nasdaq 26,000 and DXY 103 are the two benchmarks for whether each move can last.
Ethereum is testing a key Fibonacci support at 2,000, and a decisive break could be an early warning that selling is spreading across crypto. Bitcoin has held up better, but a breakdown in Ethereum would put its own 69,000 area at risk, with hawkish Fed repricing adding to an already fragile market.
Hawkish Fed repricing is pushing US yields sharply higher, but Japan's intervention threat is holding USD/JPY back as it nears 160. A decisive break above 159.02 would strengthen the bullish case, yet the path higher faces more resistance than the US rate backdrop alone suggests.