Bond Rout Extends Into Q4 as Dollar Rises and EUR/USD Breaks 1.13
Q4 opened as a continuation of Q3. Global sovereign bonds extended their selloff, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 5.34%, the Dollar pushed higher after a sixth consecutive quarterly gain, and EUR/USD broke below 1.13. This came even though softer August PCE inflation had already reduced conviction in another Fed hike in October.
Gold Price Holds 4,113 Support, but 4,235 and 4,335 Still Block the Bull Case
Gold's rebound from 4,110.50 nearly tested the 4,113.82 Fibonacci projection to the tick, preserving the corrective interpretation of the decline from 4,697.07, but the 10-year Treasury yield stayed pinned near 5.30% despite softer PCE inflation—leaving 4,234.68 and 4,334.57 as the two resistance levels bulls still need to clear.
Dollar Slides on Softer PCE, Aussie Lags as Sterling Extends BoE Rally
Sterling rallied, Dollar fell and Aussie fell even harder. The difference was not the data alone, but where each central bank already stood before the numbers arrived.
Sterling Broadens Gains as BoE Repricing Builds and UK GDP Confirms Resilience; EUR/GBP Presses Breakdown, GBP/CHF Tests Breakout
Sterling's rally started before today's stronger UK GDP data—markets now price an 89.2% probability of a November BoE hike and a terminal rate near 4.86%, with GDP confirming the hawkish repricing already underway rather than triggering it.
