EUR/CHF : 1.1107
EUR/CHF: Major wave 5 trough ended at 0.8426 and correction has commenced from there for subsequent gain towards 1.1400-1.1500.
The single currency has resumed recent upmove in line with our bullish expectation and our long position entered at 1.0905 finally met our indicated upside target at 1.1105 (with 200 points profit). This anticipated rally adds credence to our view that upmove from 1.0622 low (2016 low) is still in progress and upside bias remains for test of 2016 high of 1.1129, break there would encourage for headway to 1.1200-10, then towards 1.1300, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond later level and price should falter well below 1.1500.
To recap our preferred count, the decline from 1.6828 (end wave (B)) is labeled as the beginning of wave (C) which should unfold as an impulsive move with 1: 1.5326, 2: 1.6377 and wave 3 is sub-divided into (i): 1.4300, (ii): 1.5880 and wave (iii) is still unfolding with (1): 1.4577, (2): 1.5448 and wave (3) is an extended 3rd with i: 1.5006, ii: 1.5383, wave iii: 1.3073, then wave iv ended at 1.3925 and wave v at 1.3073, wave (4) ended at 1.3925 and wave (5) has ended at 1.2765 which also marked the low of wave (iii) and wave (iv) has ended at 1.3835 and wave (v) as well as larger degree wave 3 has ended at 1.0075. The selloff from 1.2650 signals wave 4 has ended there and we are taking a view that the wave 5 could also have ended 0.8426, hence consolidation is seen with mild upside bias for rebound to 1.1000 first (already met), then towards 1.1400.
On the downside, although initial pullback to 1.1070 is likely, reckon downside would be limited to 1.1000 and support at 1.0980-85 should hold, bring another rise later to aforesaid upside targets. A daily close below 1.0960-65 would defer and suggest a temporary top is possibly formed instead, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.0900-10, however, still reckon support at 1.0833 would remain intact, bring another upmove next month.
Recommendation: Long entered at 1.0905 met target at 1.1105 with 200 points profit and would stand aside for now.
The long-term downtrend started from 1.9626 (Apr 1985) to 1.4166 (Sep 1995) is treated as wave (A) with A:1.6285 (Dec 1987), B: 1.9342 (May 1992) and C: 1.4166, then wave (B) ended at 1.6828 with A: 1.7147 (Feb 1997), B: 1.4398 (Sep 2001), C: 1.6828 (Nov 2007), therefore, wave (C) is now in progress with the breakdown indicated as above. This wave (C) already met indicated downside target at 1.1455/60 and 1.1300, it could have ended at 0.8426, consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for gain to 1.1000 and later towards 1.2000.
