Elliott Wave Weekly

EUR/GBP Elliott Wave Analysis


EUR/GBP         –  0.8779

EUR/GBP – The major (A)(B)(C)-(X)-(A)(B)(C) correction from 0.9805 is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

As the single currency retreated after rising marginally to 0.8882 last week, retaining our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and initial downside risk is for pullback to support at 0.8719, however, still reckon downside would be limited and support at 0.8652 should hold, bring another rise later. Above said resistance at 0.8882 would signal the erratic rise from 0.8304 low is still in progress and may extend gain to 0.8940-50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9576-0.8304) but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9000 psychological level and price should falter below 0.9090-00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring retreat later.

Our latest preferred count is that the wave V of a 5-wave series from 0.5682 ended at 0.9805 earlier and major from there has possibly ended at 0.8067 as A-B-C-X-A-B-C. We are keeping our view that the entire correction from 0.9805 has possibly ended at 0.7756 and as labeled as the attached daily chart and impulsive move from 0.9084 has ended at 0.7756 as a 5-waver which marked either the (C) wave or the A leg of (C), a daily close above resistance at 0.8831 would suggest (C) leg has ended and headway towards 0.9084.

On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 0.8735-40 cannot be rule out, reckon 0.8680-90 would limit downside and bring another rise later. A daily close below support at 0.8652 would suggest top is possibly formed and risk weakness towards 0.8600-05 but reckon downside would be limited to 0.8550 and previous support at 0.8524 should hold from here, bring rebound later. 
Recommendation: Buy at 0.8680 for 0.8880 with stop below 0.8580

Euro's long term uptrend started in Feb 1981 at 0.5039 and is unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) move with (A): 0.8433 (Feb 1993), (B): 0.5682 (May 2000) and impulsive wave (C) should have ended at 0.9805 with wave III ended at 0.7254 (May 2003), triangle wave IV at 0.6536 (23 Jan 2007) and wave V as well as wave (C) has ended at 0.9805.

We are keeping an alternate count that only wave III ended at 0.9805 and the correction from there is the wave IV and may extend weakness to 0.7700, however, it is necessary to see a daily close above resistance at 0.9143 would change this to be the preferred count.