USD/JPY – 109.99
USD/JPY – Wave V of larger degree circle V has possibly ended at 75.31 and major correction has commenced and already met indicated target at 125.00.
The greenback recovered after falling to 109.11 last week, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 111.10-15 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 114.39-109.11) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to 111.71-75 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement) would hold and bring another decline later. Below said support at 109.11 would extend the fall from 114.39 to 108.80, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below previous chart support at 108.13 and bring rebound later.
Our preferred count is that, triangle wave IV (with circle) ended at 101.45 and the circle wave V brought dollar down to the record low of 75.31 in 2011 and the subsequent rebound signal major correction has commenced with A leg ended at 84.19, followed by wave B at 77.14 and impulsive wave C is now unfolding (indicated upside target at 125.00 had been met) for gain towards 127.00 level. In the event dollar drops below support at 99.01, this would confirm medium term decline from 125.86 top (2015 high) has resumed for subsequent weakness to 98.00 and possibly 97.00.
Under this count, this wave C is unfolding as impulsive waves with (1) (2), 1 2 ended at 80.67, 79.07, 82.84 and 81.69 respectively, hence the extended wave 3 has ended at 103.74 and wave 4 correction of recent upmove should bring weakness to 92.57, then towards 90.88 but psychological support at 90.00 should limit downside and bring another rally later in wave 5, indicated target at 125.00 had been met and gain to 127.00 cannot be ruled out but reckon price would falter below 130.00.
On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 110.80 and then 111.10-15 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 114.39-109.11), however, indicated level at 111.71-75 should hold an bring another decline. Above resistance at 112.13 would suggest low is formed instead and bring a stronger rebound to 112.35-40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and possibly towards 113.00 but price should falter well below said resistance at 114.39, bring another decline later this month.
Recommendation: Sell at 111.50 for 109.50 with stop above 112.50.
On the monthly chart, we have changed our preferred count that an impulsive wave is unfolding with major wave III with circle ended at 79.75, then followed by wave IV with circle and is labeled as a triangle with A: 147.64 (11 August, 1998), B: 101.25, C: 135.20, D: 101.67 and E leg ended at 124.14 to end the wave IV with circle. Hence, wave V with circle commenced from there and hit a record low of 75.31, however, the subsequent strong rebound signals this circle wave V has possibly ended there, hence gain to (indicated upside target at 122.00 and 125.00 had been met), the retreat from 125.86 suggests wave A of major correction has ended there and wave B correction back to 99.00, then 95.00 would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited to 90.00, bring another rebound in wave C next year.
