Elliott Wave Weekly

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis


EUR/JPY - 123.58


EUR/JPY: Wave v as well as larger degree wave (C) ended at 94.11 and first leg of larger degree wave C upmove has possibly ended at 149.79 and wave 2 correction has possibly ended at 109.49.


Last week’s breach of previous resistance at 124.10 confirms our bullish view that early erratic rise from 109.49 low has resumed and upside bias remains for this move to extend further gain to 124.65, then 125.25-30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 141.06-109.49) but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond resistance at 126.47 and price should falter below 127.50-60, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.

The daily chart is labeled as attached, early selloff from 169.97 (July 2008) to 112.08 is wave (A) of B instead of end of entire wave B and then the rebound from there to 139.26 is wave (B), hence, wave (C) has possibly ended at 94.12 with a diagonal triangle as labeled in the daily chart, hence upside bias is seen for further gain. Recent rally above indicated retracement level at 116.69 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the intermediate fall from 139.26-94.12) adds credence to this view and signal major reversal has commenced but first leg of this wave C has possibly ended at 149.79, hence wave 2 has commenced with wave A ended at 126.09, followed by wave B at 141.06, wave C commenced and could have ended at 109.49, above 125.00 would add credence to this view. 

On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 123.00-10 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 122.00-10 and bring another rise to aforesaid upside targets. Only below indicated support at 120.60 would defer and risk deeper pullback to 120.00 but downside should be limited to 119.40-50 and support at 118.90-95 should remain intact, bring another rise later. 

Recommendation: Buy at 122.00 for 124.50 with stop below 121.00.

To re-cap the corrective upmove from the record low of 88.93 (18 Oct 2000), the wave A from there is subdivided as: 1:88.93-113.72, 2:99.88 (1 Jun 2001), 3:140.91 (30 May 2003), 4:124.17 (10 Nov 2003) and 5 ended at record high of 169.97 (21 Jul 2008). The brief but sharp selloff to 112.08 is viewed as a-b-c x a-b-c wave (A) of B. The subsequent rebound to 139.26 is (B) of B and (C) of (B) has possibly ended at 94.12 and in any case price should stay well above previous chart support at 88.93, bring rally in larger degree wave C towards 150.00.