Elliott Wave Weekly

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis


EUR/JPY - 116.72


EUR/JPY: Wave v as well as larger degree wave (C) ended at 94.11 and first leg of larger degree wave C upmove has possibly ended at 149.79 and wave 2 correction has possibly ended at 109.49.


Although the single currency extended recent decline to 114.85, as euro found good support there and has rebounded, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen with initial upside bias for recovery to 118.00-10, however, reckon upside would be limited to 118.70-80 and bring another decline later, below 115.75-80 would bring another fall to 114.85 support but break there is needed to confirm the decline from 124.10 top has resumed for further fall to 113.72 (previous support0 and possibly towards 113.00-10 but price should stay above previous chart support at 112.61.

The daily chart is labeled as attached, early selloff from 169.97 (July 2008) to 112.08 is wave (A) of B instead of end of entire wave B and then the rebound from there to 139.26 is wave (B), hence, wave (C) has possibly ended at 94.12 with a diagonal triangle as labeled in the daily chart, hence upside bias is seen for further gain. Recent rally above indicated retracement level at 116.69 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the intermediate fall from 139.26-94.12) adds credence to this view and signal major reversal has commenced but first leg of this wave C has possibly ended at 149.79, hence wave 2 has commenced with wave A ended at 126.09, followed by wave B at 141.06, wave C commenced and could have ended at 109.49, above 125.00 would add credence to this view. 

On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 117.30-40, then 118.00 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 118.70-80 and bring another decline later. Above previous support at 119.32 would defer and suggest low is possibly formed, risk a stronger rebound to 119.80-85 but only a daily close above indicated resistance at 120.44 would provide confirmation, bring a stronger rebound to 120.90-00 and possibly 121.30-35 but price should falter well below resistance at 121.84. 

Recommendation: Sell euro at 118.80 for 116.00 with stop above 119.80.

To re-cap the corrective upmove from the record low of 88.93 (18 Oct 2000), the wave A from there is subdivided as: 1:88.93-113.72, 2:99.88 (1 Jun 2001), 3:140.91 (30 May 2003), 4:124.17 (10 Nov 2003) and 5 ended at record high of 169.97 (21 Jul 2008). The brief but sharp selloff to 112.08 is viewed as a-b-c x a-b-c wave (A) of B. The subsequent rebound to 139.26 is (B) of B and (C) of (B) has possibly ended at 94.12 and in any case price should stay well above previous chart support at 88.93, bring rally in larger degree wave C towards 150.00.