Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.7620

AUD/USD – 0.7540

Original strategy:

Sold at 0.7720, met target at 0.7550

Position: – Short at 0.7720
Target:  – 0.7550
Stop:-

New strategy :

Sell at 0.7620, Target: 0.7470, Stop: 0.7680

Position: –
Target:  –
Stop:-

As aussie has remained under pressure after recent anticipated selloff, adding credence to our bearish view that recent decline from 0.8125 top is still in progress, hence downside bias remains for this fall to extend weakness to 0.7500, then 0.7470, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.7440 and reckon 0.7400 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a rebound later. 

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell aussie on recovery as 0.7610-20 should limit upside. Above 0.7650 would bring rebound to 0.7670, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.7701 resistance and price should falter well below this month’s high at 0.7730, bring another decline.

On the 4-hour chart, recent upmove from 0.7329 is unfolding as an impulsive rise with wave 3 as well as smaller degree wave (iii) extending, only minor wave v of (iii) has ended at 0.8125, hence bullishness remains for this move to extend headway to 0.8200, then towards 0.8300, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8400 and the final wave 5 should falter below 0.8500, bring correction later.