GBP/USD – 1.3243
New strategy :
Although cable has maintained a relatively firm undertone after recent rebound and marginal gain above resistance at 1.3260 (last week’s high) cannot be ruled out, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3300 and reckon resistance area at 1.3321-38 would hold and bring further choppy trading later. Our preferred count is that (pls see the attached chart) the wave IV is unfolding as a complex double three (ABC-X-ABC) correction with 2nd wave B ended at 1.2774, hence 2nd wave C could have ended at 1.3658.
On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.3200 cannot be ruled out, reckon minor support at 1.3170 would contain downside and bring another rise later. A drop below 1.3170 would bring test of 1.3130-35 but break there is needed to signal the rebound from 1.3039 has ended and bring weakness to 1.3100 first, however, reckon support at 1.3062 would hold from here.
Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable's rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has ended at 1.7192, the subsequent selloff is the larger degree wave (C) which is still unfolding with minor wave (III) of larger degree wave 3 ended at 1.1986, hence wave (IV) correction is in progress which could either be a triangle wave (IV) of a complex formation but upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well below 1.4000, bring another decline in wave (V) of 3 for weakness to 1.1500, then 1.1200.