EUR/JPY – 132.13
Original strategy:
Sold at 132.70, stopped profit at 132.30
Position: – Short at 132.70
Target: –
Stop: – 132.30
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Although the single currency edged higher to 132.60 earlier today, lack of follow through buying and current retreat suggest further consolidation would take place and weakness to 131.60-70 cannot be ruled out, however, break of last week’s low at 131.40 is needed to revive bearishness and extend recent decline from 134.50 top for a correction of early upmove to 131.00, then towards 130.50-60.
In view of this, we are looking to reinstate short on subsequent recovery. Above 132.60-70 would bring recovery towards resistance at 133.12, break there would suggest first leg of corrective decline from 134.50 top has ended, risk a stronger rebound to 133.50-60 but still reckon upside would be limited to 133.95-00, price should falter well below said recent high at 134.50, bring another selloff later.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).
