USD/CAD – 1.2740
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Bought at 1.2755, Target: 1.2955, Stop: 1.2695
Position: – Long at 1.2735
Target: – 1.2955
Stop: – 1.2695
New strategy :
Exit long entered at 1.2705
Position: – Long at 1.2755
Target: –
Stop:-
Current selloff after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.2836 suggests a temporary top has been formed at 1.2917 last week and downside risk remains for this retreat to bring retracement of recent rise, hence weakness to 1.2700-05 cannot be ruled out, however, downside would be limited to support at 1.2636 and bring rebound later. Only a drop below 1.2636 would signal recent rise has ended at 1.2917, bring further fall to 1.2600 and later towards 1.2550-60.
In view of this, would be prudent to exit long entered at 1.2755 and stand aside for now.above 1.2800 would bring test of said resistance at 1.2836 but a sustained breach above there is needed to revive bullishness and signal the pullback from 1.2917 has ended instead,bring further gain to 1.285-80, then later towards said resistance at 1.2917. Having said that, as we are still treating this rebound from 1.2061 as wave iv, reckon 1.2975-80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave iii) would limit upside and 1.3000 should hold, bring selloff later in wave v. We are keeping our count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii ended at 1.2414, followed by wave iv correction ended at 1.2778, wave v has reached our indicated downside target at 1.2100 and may extend to 1.2000.
To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.
