Trade Idea: GBP/JPY – Hold short entered at 150.00

GBP/JPY – 149.40

Original strategy:

Sold at 150.00, Target: 148.00, Stop: 150.60

Position: – Short at 150.00
Target: – 148.00
Stop: – 150.60

New strategy :

Hold short entered at 150.00, Target: 148.00, Stop: 150.60

Position: – Short at 150.00
Target:  – 148.00
Stop:- 150.60

Although sterling rebounded yesterday to 150.00, the British pound did meet renewed selling interest there and has retreated, adding credence to our bearish view (we recommended to sell at 150.00 and a short position was entered) that the rebound from 146.95 has ended at 151.40 last week, hence consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 148.50, then 148.00, however, break of support at 147.80 is needed to retain bearishness and signal another leg of decline from 152.85 top is underway for further fall towards said support at 146.95.

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 150.00. Above 150.50-60 would prolong consolidation and bring rebound to 151.00 but said resistance at 151.40 should hold. Only a break of this resistance would revive bullishness and extend the rebound from 146.95 towards 151.90-00 first.

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.