GBP/JPY – 149.40
Original strategy:
Bought at 149.50, Target: 151.50, Stop: 148.90
Position: – Long at 149.50
Target: – 151.50
Stop: – 148.90
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 149.50, Target: 151.50, Stop: 149.70
Position: – Long at 149.50
Target: – 151.50
Stop:- 149.70
Sterling only rose to 151.40 (just missed our upside target at 151.50) before treating again, suggesting consolidation below said resistance would be seen, however, as long as 149.75-80 holds, bullishness remains for another rise, break of resistance area at 1.5140-60 would add credence to our view that correction from 152.85 has ended, bring further rise to 152.00 and later towards said recent high.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 149.50. Below 149.75-80 would suggest top is possibly formed but only break of 149.10-15 would add credence to this view and suggest the rebound from 146.95 has ended instead, risk weakness to 148.55-60 but indicated support at 147.80 should hold from here.
Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.
