EUR/JPY – 134.23
Original strategy:
Bought at 133.20, Target: 135.20, Stop: 133.10
Position: – Long at 133.20
Target: – 135.20
Stop: – 133.10
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 133.20, Target: 135.20, Stop: 133.50
Position: – Long at 133.20
Target: – 135.20
Stop:- 133.50
As the single currency found renewed buying interest at 133.10 and has surged again, retaining our bullishness for rent upmove to resume and upside bias remains for further gain to 135.00-10, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 135.50-60 and reckon 136.00-10 would hold from here, bring retreat later.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 133.20. Only below said support at 133.10 would defer an risk correction to 132.70-75, then test of indicated support at 132.47, break there would signal top is formed instead, risk correction to 132.00 first but strong support at 131.66 should remain intact.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).
