EUR/JPY – 122.00
Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy:
Bought at 121.30, Target: 123.30, Stop: 120.70
Position: – Long at 121.30
Target: – 123.30
Stop: – 120.70
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 121.30, Target: 123.30, Stop: 120.70
Position: – Long at 121.30
Target: – 123.30
Stop:- 120.70
As the single currency found good support at 121.13 and staged a rebound from there, suggesting low is possibly formed there and consolidation with upside bias is senior gain to 122.50, however, break of 122.60-65 is needed to signal the retreat from 122.89 has ended, bring retest of this level, above there would retain bullishness and extend recent rise from 118.24 to 123.30-35. Looking ahead, a sustained breach above this level is needed to retain bullishness and signal early erratic fall from 124.10 top has ended at 118.24, bring further rise to 123.85-90 first.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 121.30. Below said support at 121.13 would defer and risk correction of recent upmove to 120.45-50 but downside should be limited and price should stay well above support at 120.02 and bring another rise later.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).
