EUR/JPY – 133.83
Original strategy:
Bought at 133.20, Target: 135.20, Stop: 132.60
Position: – Long at 133.20
Target: – 135.20
Stop: – 132.60
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 133.20, Target: 135.20, Stop: 133.10
Position: – Long at 133.20
Target: – 135.20
Stop:- 133.10
As the single currency found support at 133.10 and has rebounded again, retaining our bullishness and upside bias remains for a retest of recent high at 134.41, however, above this resistance is needed to confirm early upmove has resumed and extend headway to 135.00-10 and later towards 135.50-60 which is likely to hold from here due to overbought condition.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 133.20. Below said support at 133.10 would defer an risk correction to 132.70-75 but only break of indicated support at 132.47 would abort and prolong choppy trading, risk weakness to 132.00, having said that, strong support at 131.66 should remain intact, bring another rebound later.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).
