Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Buy at 0.8620

EUR/GBP – 0.8691

 
Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

Trend: Near term down

Original strategy  :

Buy at 0.8645, Target: 0.8760, Stop: 0.8605

Position : –

Target :  –

Stop : –

New strategy  :

Buy at 0.8620, Target: 0.8750, Stop: 0.8580

Position : –

Target :  –

Stop : –
 

Although the single currency rebound to as high as 0.8760, as renewed selling interest emerged and euro has slipped again, retaining our view that further consolidation below indicated resistance at 0.8788 would be seen and pullback to 0.8645-48 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8422-0.8788) is likely, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.8615-20 and bring another rise later, break of 0.8760 would bring retest of said resistance at 0.8788, above there would extend the rise from 0.8403 low to 0.8800 but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 0.8825-30 and price should falter well below 0.8850.

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on subsequent pullback as 0.8615-20 should limit downside. Below 0.8605 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8422-0.8788) would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk test of 0.8560-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) but support at 0.8547 should remain intact. 

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.