AUD/USD – 0.8041
Original strategy:
Sell at 0.8090, Target: 0.7900, Stop: 0.8150
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
New strategy :
Sell at 0.8090, Target: 0.7900, Stop: 0.8150
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
As aussie has recovered after finding support at 0.8011, retaining our view that further consolidation above 0.7998 (this week’s low) would be seen and another bounce to 0.8070 cannot be ruled out, however, if our view that top has possibly been formed at 0.8125 is correct, upside would be limited to 0.8090 and bring retreat later, below 0.8011 would bring test of 0.7998, break there would add credence to this view, bring test of previous support at 0.7963, below there would confirm and bring retracement of recent rise to 0.7920-25 and later 0.7890-00 but support at 0.7867-71 should remain intact.
In view of this, we are looking to sell aussie on recovery as 0.8090-00 should limit upside. Above said resistance at 0.8125 would (last week’s high) would extend recent upmove in wave v of (iii) to 0.8150, then towards 0.8200, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 0.8225-30 and price should falter below 0.8250-60, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
