Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Hold short entered at 1.2690

USD/CAD – 1.2467

 
Original strategy       :

Sold at 1.2690, met target at 1.2490

Position: – Short at 1.2690

Target:  – 1.2490

Stop: –

 
New strategy             :

Sell at 1.2550, Target: 1.2350, Stop: 1.2610

Position: –

Target:  –

Stop:-

The greenback extended the selloff from 1.2778 in line with our bearish expectation, our short position entered at 1.2690 finally reached our downside target at 1.2490 (with 200 points profit), this anticipated selloff adds credence to our view that the wave iv correction from 1.2414 (wave iii trough) has ended at 1.2778, hence wave v is underway for retest of 1.2414 but break there is needed to provide confirmation and extend weakness to 1.2350, then towards 1.2300. We are keeping our count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii ended at 1.2414, followed by wave iv correction possibly ended at 1.2778, wave v should extend towards 1.2300.

In view of this, we are looking to sell again on recovery as 1.2550-60 should limit upside. Only above indicated resistance at 1.2607 would defer and prolong consolidation, risk rebound to 1.2660 but resistance at 1.2691 should hold from here, bring further consolidation. Above 1.2691 resistance would risk a stronger rebound to 1.2740-50, however, said resistance at 1.2778 should hold. In the event the pair breaks said resistance at 1.2778, this would abort and signal the rebound from 1.2414 is still in progress for retracement of recent decline to 1.2825-30 but still reckon upside would be limited to 1.2880-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of wave iii) and price should falter well below 1.2990-95 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring retreat later.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.