AUD/USD – 0.7510
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Sold at 0.7605, Target: 0.7450, Stop: 0.7635
Position: – Short at 0.7605
Target:Â – 0.7450
Stop: – 0.7635
New strategy :
Hold short entered at 0.7605, Target: 0.7450, Stop: 0.7585
Position: – Short at 0.7605
Target:Â – 0.7450
Stop:- 0.7585
As aussie has fallen again after meeting renewed selling interest at 0.7633 earlier this week and the breach of previous support at 0.7543 adds credence to our view that top has been formed at 0.7741 and bearishness remains for the fall from there to bring retracement of recent upmove, hence further weakness to 0.7493 support is likely, below there would extend fall to 0.7449 support which is likely to hold on first testing.
In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 0.7605. Only above said resistance at 0.7633 would risk a stronger rebound to 0.7665 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7741-0.7543) but only break there would abort and suggest the retreat from 0.7741 has ended, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7700 but price should falter well below said resistance at 0.7741, bring another decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
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