AUD/USD – 0.7875
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term up
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target:Â –
Stop:-
As aussie has remained under near term pressure after recent anticipated retreat, adding credence to our bearishness and further consolidation below recent high of 0.8066 would be seen, hence mild downside bias remains for this move to bring retracement of recent rise in wave iv to 0.7839 (previous resistance tuned support), however, downside should be limited to 0.7786 and price should stay well above wave i top at 0.7712.
In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 0.7940-45 and bring another decline later. Only break of indicated resistance at 0.7980 would suggest low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 0.8000, then towards 0.8043 resistance, break there would signal the pullback from 0.8066 top has ended instead, bring retest of this level first. We are keeping our latest bullish count that recent impulsive waves is unfolding as (1 2, (i)(ii), i ii) and may extend headway towards 0.8150.Â
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
