GBP/USD – 1.3023
Recent wave: Wave V of larger degree wave (III) has ended at 1.1986 and major correction has commenced from there for gain to 1.3000 and 1.3140-50
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Sell at 1.3090, Target: 1.2890, Stop: 1.3150
Position: –
Target: –
Stop: –
New strategy :
Sell at 1.3090, Target: 1.2890, Stop: 1.3150
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Yesterday’s rebound to 1.3058 has retained our view that further consolidation above 1.2933 would be seen and initial upside risk remains for the recovery from this last week’s low to bring further gain to 1.3062, however, if our view that top has been formed at 1.3126 is correct, upside should be limited to 1.3090-00 and bring another decline later, below 1.2950-55 would signal the rebound from 1.2933 has ended, bring test of this level, break there would add credence to our view and extend the fall from 1.3126 top to 1.2910-15, break there would provide confirmation, then further fall to 1.2870-80 would follow but reckon support at 1.2812 would remain intact, bring rebound later.
Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable’s rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has ended at 1.7192, the subsequent selloff is the larger degree wave (C) which is still unfolding with minor wave (III) of larger degree wave 3 ended at 1.1986, hence wave (IV) correction is in progress which could either be a triangle wave (IV) of a complex formation but upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well below 1.4000, bring another decline in wave (V) of 3 for weakness to 1.1500, then 1.1200.
On the upside, whilst further recovery to 1.3062 cannot be ruled out, price should falter below 1.3100 and bring another retreat later. A break above last week’s high of 1.3126 would signal recent upmove is still in progress and may extend headway to 1.3150, then towards 1.3190-00 but loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 1.3250, bring another retreat later.
