EUR/JPY – 130.09
Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy:
Sold at 129.70, stopped at 130.30
Position: – Short at 129.70
Target: –
Stop: – 130.30
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Although euro’s rebound turned out to be stronger than expected and upside risk is seen for a retest of recent high at 130.77, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and signal recent upmove has resumed for headway to 131.00-10, then towards 131.50, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and reckon 132.00 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 129.35 (previous minor resistance) would prolong consolidation and bring weakness to 128.80-85, then test of previous support at 128.49, only break there would signal top has been formed at 130.77 early last week, bring retracement of recent upmove to 128.00, then towards previous support at 127.44.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).
