AUD/USD – 0.7901
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Buy at 0.7800, Target: 0.7990, Stop: 0.7740
Position: –
Target: –
Stop: –
New strategy :
Buy at 0.7800, Target: 0.7990, Stop: 0.7740
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
As aussie met renewed selling interest at 0.7970 and has retreated again, retaining our view that further consolidation below this week’s high of 0.7990 would be seen and initial downside risk remains for correction to 0.7840-50, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.7800 and support at 0.7786 should hold, bring another rise later, above 0.7970 would bring retest of 0.7990 but break of psychological resistance at 0.8000 is needed to retain our bullish count for recent impulsive waves (1 2, (i)(ii), i ii) to extend headway to 0.8040-50, having said that, price should falter below 0.8100.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy aussie on subsequent pullback as 0.7800 should limit downside, bring another upmove later. Below support at 0.7786 would defer and suggest wave iii top is formed, bring correction in wave iv to 0.7750 but wave i top at 0.7712 should remain intact.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
