AUD/USD – 0.7563
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Sold at 0.7690, met target at 0.7550
Position: – Short at 0.7690
Target: – 0.7550
Stop: –
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Aussie has finally dropped yesterday and our short position entered at 0.7690 finally met our indicated downside target at 0.7550 (with 140 points profit), adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 0.7741 and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for this fall from there to bring retracement of recent upmove to 0.7512, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below previous support at 0.7493 and price should stay above support at 0.7449, bring rebound later.
As we have taken profit on our short position entered at 0.7690, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 0.7600 and price should falter below previous support at 0.7637, bring another decline later. Only break of 0.7700 would signal the retreat from 0.7741 (last week’s high) has ended and bring retest of this level first.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
