EUR/JPY – 124.36
Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy:
Buy art 123.40, Target: 125.40, Stop: 122.80
Position: –
Target: –
Stop: –
New strategy :
Buy art 123.40, Target: 125.40, Stop: 122.80
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Although the single currency edged higher after staging a strong rebound from 122.40 (last week’s low), loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 124.70-75 and reckon 125.00 would hold on first testing, risk from there has increased for are retreat to take place soon. Looking ahead, only a break of resistance at 125.31 would retain bullishness and suggest the correction from 125.82 has ended, bring eventual retest of this level later this month.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy euro on dips as 123.40-50 should limit downside and bring another rebound later. Below 122.90-00 would defer and risk another fall to said support at 122.40 but only break there would signal the erratic decline from 125.82 top is still in progress for correction of early upmove to 122.00, then 121.70-75.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).
