EUR/JPY – 123.31
Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy:
Bought at 123.75, Target: 125.75, Stop: 123.15
Position: – Long at 123.75
Target: – 125.75
Stop: – 123.15
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 123.75, Target: 125.75, Stop: 123.15
Position: – Long at 123.75
Target:Â – 125.75
Stop:- 123.15
Current selloff dampened our near term bullishness and support at 123.16 needs to hold to retain prospect of another rebound later, above 124.15-20 would suggest the retreat from 125.31 has ended, bring test of 124.71 resistance but break there is needed to confirm and bring another test of said resistance at 125.31. Looking ahead, above 125.31 would extend gain towards strong resistance at 125.82 but break there is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend headway to 126.20-30 and possibly 126.60-70.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 123.75. Below support at 123.16 would abort and shift risk back to downside for test of previous support at 122.56 which is likely to hold from here due to broad consolidative outlook.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).
