Elliott Wave Daily

Trade Idea: GBP/JPY - Stand aside


GBP/JPY - 144.70

Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.

Trend: Near term up

New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: -
Target:  -

Although sterling fell marginally to 143.40 yesterday, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound suggest consolidation above this level would be seen and gain to 145.30-35 cannot be ruled out, however, break of resistance at 145.90-95 is needed to signal low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 146.30-35 but resistance at 147.10 should remain intact, bring retreat later.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside for now. Below 144.00 would bring test of 143.80-85 but break there is needed to signal the rebound from 143.40 has ended, bring another test of this level, break there would extend the corrective decline from 148.10 top for retracement of recent upmove to 143.00, then towards 142.50-60.

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.