EUR/GBP – 0.8533
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Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.
Trend: Near term down
Original strategy :
Bought at 0.8530, Target: 0.8630, Stop: 0.8490
Position : – Long at 0.8530
Target :Â – 0.8630
Stop : – 0.8490
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 0.8530, Target: 0.8630, Stop: 0.8490
Position : – Long at 0.8530
Target :Â – 0.8630
Stop : – 0.8490
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Although the single currency has retreated after rising to 0.8615 yesterday and consolidation below this level would be seen, reckon downside would be limited to 0.8505-10 and bring rebound later, above 0.8595 would bring retest of 0.8615, break there would signal the erratic rise from 0.8312 low has resumed and extend gain to 0.8630, having said that, as this move is viewed as retracement of recent decline, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8650-60, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.
In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 0.8530. Below 0.8500-05 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, bring weakness to support at 0.8457 but break of previous resistance at 0.8452 is needed to confirm and bring test of support at 0.8423 first.
Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.
