EUR/JPY – 124.03
Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy:
Sold at 124.00, Target: 122.20, Stop: 124.60
Position: – Short at 124.00
Target: – 122.20
Stop: – 124.60
New strategy :
Hold short entered at 124.00, Target: 122.20, Stop: 124.60
Position: – Short at 124.00
Target: – 122.20
Stop:- 124.60
Although the single currency has rebounded after finding support at 122.98 and marginal gain from here cannot be ruled out, as long as resistance at 124.55 (yesterday’s high) holds, further consolidation would take place and mild downside bias remains for another retreat, below support at 122.92-98 would suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring further fall to 122.60 but break of 122.00-10 is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to 11.50 first.
In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 124.00. Above said resistance at 124.55 would abort and signal recent upmove is still in progress and may extend further gain towards 125.00 level but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 125.40-50, risk from there is seen for another retreat later.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).
