AUD/USD – 0.7486
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term down
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Although aussie rebounded to 0.7556 yesterday, lack of follow through buying and current retreat suggest further consolidation would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.7468 and last week’s low at 0.7440 should remain intact, bring another rebound later. Only a break of this support would shift risk back to downside and signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 0.7390-00 first.
On the upside, whilst recovery to 0.7520-25 cannot be ruled out, break of said resistance at 0.7556 is needed to revive bullishness and add credence to our view that low has possibly been formed at 0.7440, then further gain to resistance at 0.7592, a sustained breach above this level would provide confirmation, bring further subsequent rise to 0.7611.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
