AUD/USD – 0.7476
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term down
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
As aussie has dropped again and broke below indicated previous support at 0.7473, adding credence to our bearish view that recent decline from 0.7750 has resumed and downside bias is seen for this move to extend weakness to 0.7450-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750), then 0.7400-10 but reckon downside would be limited to 0.7380-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and 0.7350 should hold, risk from there is seen for a rebound later.
In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell aussie on recovery as 0.7505-10 would limit upside. Only above resistance at 0.7556 would abort and suggest low is possibly formed, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7570-75 but break of resistance at 0.7592 is needed to provide confirmation.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
