Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 7 Mar 2017
• Trend bias: Sideways
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning star
• Time of formation: 9 May 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
USD/CHF – 0.9992
As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after surging to 1.0039 late last month, adding credence to our bullish view that recent rise from 0.9421 low would resume after consolidation, although pullback to 0.9900-10 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9872) would limit downside and 0.9820-30 should hold, bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.0039 would extend the rise from 0.9421 low for retracement of early decline from 1.0344 to resistance at 1.0100, then 1.0150 but reckon 1.0200-10 would hold from here.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 0.9935-40 and possibly 0.9900 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9872) would limit downside and renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.9820-30, bring another upmove later. Below support at 0.9737 would defer and signal top has been formed instead, bring at least a retracement of recent rise to 0.9700, then test of minor support at 0.9670. A drop below this level would suggest the rise from 0.9421 has ended, risk further fall to 0.9642 support but reckon downside would be limited to 0.9590-00 and support at 0.9565 should remain intact.
Recommendation: Buy at 0.9830 for 1.0030 with stop below 0.9730.
On the weekly chart, the greenback has traded narrowly after meeting resistance at 1.0039, suggesting initial minor consolidation would be seen, however, our near term bullish view remains for the rebound from 0.9421 low to extend further gain towards resistance at 1.0100-08, having said that, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond previous resistance at 1.0171 and 1.0200-10 should hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.
On the downside, although initial pullback to 0.9935-40 and then 0.9900 is likely, reckon 0.9820-30 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.9749) would bring test of 0.9730-37 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and previous support) but break there is needed to signal top is formed and suggest first leg of rebound from 0.9737 has ended and bring weakness to 0.9690-00, however, reckon support at 0.9642 would limit downside and price should stay above support at 0.9565 and the greenback shall stage another strong rebound next month.
