Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Dark cloud cover
• Time of formation: 10 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Down
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Evening doji
• Time of formation: 7 Aug 2017
• Trend bias: Down
USD/JPY – 113.69
Although the greenback resumed recent rise and rose to as high as 114.45 late last week, the subsequent retreat after faltering below indicated previous resistance at 114.50 suggests a week of consolidation below this level would take place and test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 113.24) is likely, however, a daily close below the Kijun-Sen (now at 112.96) is needed to signal a temporary top has been formed there, bring retracement of recent rise to 112.60, then 112.30 but reckon downside would be limited to 112.00 and previous support at 111.65 should remain intact, bring rebound later.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 114.00 and said last week’s high at 114.45 should remain intact, bring another retreat. A break of said resistance at 114.45-50 would signal early fall from 118.66 has ended at 107.32 and the rise from 107.32 low may extend further gain to 115.50, then previous resistance at 115.51-62, however, loss of momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 116.00-10, risk from there is seen for another retreat later.
Recommendation : Stand aside for this week.
On the weekly chart, after forming a white candlestick the week before, dollar edged higher again last week to 114.45, however, indicated previous resistance at 114.50 continued to cap dollar’s upside and price has retreated, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 113.00 cannot be ruled out, below there would bring retracement to 112.50-60, then 112.00, however, previous support at 111.65 should hold. Only a drop below this level would signal the rise from 107.32 low has ended there, bring deeper correction to 111.00 but reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 110.91) would hold on first testing.
On the upside, above said resistance at 114.45-50 would signal the decline from 118.66 top has ended earlier at 107.32, bring further rise to psychological level at 115.00, then test of resistance at 115.51, break there would add credence to this view and encourage for headway to 116.50-60 first, having said that, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 117.00-10, risk from there is seen for another retreat later.
