Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 7 Mar 2017
• Trend bias: Sideways
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning star
• Time of formation: 9 May 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
USD/CHF – 0.9784
Although the greenback found support at 0.9705 and has rebounded, break of resistance at 0.9837 (this month’s high) is needed to signal the rise from 0.9421 low has resumed and extend gain to 0.9845-50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0108-0.9421), then 0.9900-10, however, reckon upside would be limited and price should falter below psychological resistance at 1.0000. If said resistance at 0.9837 continues to hold, then further consolidation would take place and another retreat to 0.9705 is likely but downside should be limited to 0.9642 support and bring another rebound later.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 0.9705, then minor support at 0.9670 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited and renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.9650-55 and bring another rise later. A daily close below indicated support at 0.9642 is needed to signal top is formed instead, bring retracement of recent rise to the upper Kumo (now at 0.9600), however, lower Kumo (now at 0.9574) should hold on first testing and price should stay well above support at 0.9565.
Recommendation: Buy at 0.9650 for 0.9850 with stop below 0.9550.
On the weekly chart, the greenback traded in relatively narrow range and further sideways trading is in store, although pullback from 0.9837 may bring pullback to 0.9670, reckon support at 0.9642 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 0.9837 would extend the rebound from 0.9421 low for retracement of recent decline to 0.9845-50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0108-0.9421), then test of the lower Kumo (now at 0.9894) but upside should be limited to the upper Kumo (now at 0.9970), price should falter well below resistance at 1.0100-08.
On the downside, although initial pullback to 0.9705 is likely, reckon support at 0.9642 would limit downside and bring another rise. A drop below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.9629) would suggest the first leg of rebound from 0.9421 low has ended, bring weakness to 0.9580 support but still reckon downside would be limited to support at 0.9565 and price should stay above 0.9490-00, bring another rebound later this month. .
