Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 7 Mar 2017
• Trend bias: Sideways
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning star
• Time of formation: 9 May 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
USD/CHF – 0.9690
Although the greenback extended recent rise from 0.9421 to as high as 0.9837 late last week, the subsequent retreat on Friday suggests consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.9754) is likely, below there would minor correction to support at 0.9710 but reckon downside would be limited to 0.9685-90 and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 0.9837 would extend the aforesaid rise from 0.9421 to 0.9845-50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0108-0.9421), then 0.9900-10, however, reckon upside would be limited and price should falter below psychological resistance at 1.0000.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.9754) cannot be ruled out, reckon minor support at 0.9710 would limit downside and renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.9680-90 and bring another rise later. Below support at 0.9670 would risk test of support at 0.9642 but a daily close below latter level is needed to signal top is formed instead, bring retracement of recent rise to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9629) and then test of the upper Kumo (now at 0.9600), however, lower Kumo (now at 0.9582) should hold on first testing and price should stay well above support at 0.9565.
Recommendation: Buy at 0.9695 for 0.9895 with stop below 0.9595.
On the weekly chart, the greenback surged again last week and broke above previous resistance at 0.9773, adding credence to our view that low has been formed earlier at 0.9421, hence consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for the rebound from 0.9421 to bring retracement of recent decline to 0.9845-50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0108-0.9421), then test of the lower Kumo (now at 0.9894) but upside should be limited to the upper Kumo (now at 0.9970), price should falter well below resistance at 1.0100-08.
On the downside, although initial pullback to 0.9710 is likely, reckon last week’s low at 0.9676 would limit downside and bring another rise. A drop below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.9629) would suggest the first leg of rebound from 0.9421 low has ended, bring weakness to 0.9580 support but still reckon downside would be limited to support at 0.9565 and price should stay above 0.9490-00, bring another rebound later this month. .
