Weekly
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
- Time of formation: 5 Sep 2016
- Trend bias: Down
Daily
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
- Time of formation: 8 Sep 2016
- Trend bias: Down
Although aussie slipped again last week and fell to as low as 0.7491, as the pair found good support there and has rebounded, retaining our bullishness and consolidation with upside bias is seen for further gain to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7616), then test of resistance at 0.7633, however, a daily close above latter level is needed to signal low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7665-70. Looking ahead, only above 0.7700 would signal the pullback from 0.7741 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to previous chart resistance at 0.7778, above there would retain bullishness and confirm early erratic upmove from 0.6827 (2016 low) has resumed for retest of 0.7835 (2016 high) first.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 0.7540 and bring such a rebound. Below said support at 0.7491 would extend the fall from 0.7741 top for retracement of recent upmove towards the lower Kumo (now at 0.7427). Only a daily close below the lower Kumo would shift risk to the downside and signal recent rise has ended, bring weakness to 0.7390-00 and possibly towards 0.7350 but reckon 0.7300-10 would remain intact, bring rebound later.
Recommendation: Hold long entered at 0.7515 for 0.7715 with stop below 0.7490.
On the weekly chart, although aussie’s retreat from 0.7741 has kept price under near term pressure and further consolidation below said resistance would be seen, reckon downside would be limited to last week’s low at 0.7491 and bring rebound later, above 0.7630-35 would bring test of 0.7700 but break of said resistance at 0.7741 is needed to extend the rebound from 0.7158 towards resistance at 0.7778, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited and price should falter below 2016 high at 0.7835. Looking ahead, only above this level would suggest an upside break of recent established broad range has occurred, bring further subsequent rise towards 0.7900.
On the downside, assize’s downside is likely to be limited to the upper Kumo (now at 0.7540) and bring another rebound. Below said support at 0.7491 would risk test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7468) but break there is needed to signal top is formed, bring weakness to 0.7400, break there would add credence to this view, bring subsequent fall to the lower Kumo (now at 0.7331), a drop below 0.7285-90 support would indicate the rebound from 0.7158 has ended and bring further decline to 0.7200-10, then towards strong support area at 0.7145-58.
