Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 31 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 2 Aug 2017
• Trend bias: Up
EUR/USD – 1.1923
Although the single currency resumed recent upmove and rose to as high as 1.2093, lack of follow throng buying on break of previous resistance at 1.2070 and the subsequent retreat has retained our view that further consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.1835-40 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon down side would be limited to 1.1790-00 and bring another rise later, above 1.2030-35 would signal the pullback from 1.2093 but break there is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to dynamic resistance at 1.2165-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3993-1.0340) and later towards 1.2200-10 but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2250-60 and reckon 1.2300-10 would hold from here.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.1835-40 and then 1.1800 cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.1730-40 would contain downside and bring another rise. Below 1.1700 would risk test of support at 1.1662 but a daily close below latter level is needed to signal a temporary top has been formed, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1610-15 and possibly towards 1.1550-60, however, reckon the lower Kumo (now at 1.1515) would contain downside.
Recommendation: Buy euro at 1.1800 for 1.2000 with stop below 1.1700.
On the weekly chart, euro’s retreat after marginal rise to 1.2093 suggests consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.1835-40, then 1.1800 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.1730-35 and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.2093 would extend recent upmove from 1.0340 low to 1.2160-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3993-1.0340) but loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 1.2220-30 and reckon 1.2300-10 would hold from here, price should falter well below 1.2390-00, bring another retreat later.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.1800 is likely, reckon downside would be limited to 1.1730-35 and bring another rise later. Only below support at 1.1662 would abort and suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring retracement of recent rise to 1.1545-50 and possibly towards 1.1500, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.1430-40 and price should stay well above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1332), bring another upmove later this month or in Q4.
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