Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 10 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 18 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Aussie finally resumed recent upmove and surged to as high as 0.8126 in line with our bullish expectations (our long position entered at 0.7920 met target at 0.8120 with 200 points profit), this anticipated resumption of upmove suggests the medium term erratic rise from 0.6827 may extend gain to 0.8163 resistance, however, loss of near term upward momentum should limit upside to 0.8200 and reckon 0.8260-65 (61.8% projection of 0.7329-0.8066 measuring from 0.7808) would hold, price should falter well below another previous resistance at 0.8295, bring retreat later.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7967) and bring another rise later. A daily close below the Kijun-Sen would bring weakness to 0.7900 and possibly test of 0.7871 support, however, downside should be limited to indicated previous support at 0.7808 and bring rebound later. In the event aussie drops below said support at 0.7808, this would signal a top is indeed been formed, bring further weakness to 0.7760 but reckon downside would be limited to previous resistance at 0.7712 and 0.7670-75 would hold from here.
Recommendation: Long entered at 0.7920 met target at 0.8120 with 200 points profit and would turn short at 0.8175 for 0.7975 with stop above 0.8275
On the weekly chart, although last week’s anticipated breach of previous resistance at 0.8066 adds credence to our bullishness that the erratic rise from 0.6827 low has resumed and upside bias remains for this move to extend gain previous resistance at 0.8163, then 0.8200 but near term overbought condition should limit upside to 0.8260-65 (61.8% projection of 0.7329-0.8066 measuring from 0.7808) and another previous resistance at 0.8295 should hold, price should falter well below 0.8390-00, bring retreat later.
On the downside, although pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.7956) cannot be ruled out, reckon minor support at 0.7871 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Below 0.7871 would bring test of support at 0.7808 but a weekly close below there is needed to signal top is formed, brig retracement of recent rise to 0.7750, however, a sustained breach below previous resistance at 0.7712 is needed to retain bearishness, bring subsequent fall to 0.7650-60, then towards 0.7600-10 but support at 0.7571 should contain weakness.
