Weekly
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting starÂ
- Time of formation: 03 May 2016
- Trend bias: Down
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Daily
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
- Time of formation: 3 May 2016
- Trend bias: Sideways
EUR/USD – 1.0698
Although the single currency retreated after meeting resistance at 1.0640, as euro found renewed buying interest at 1.0525 and has staged another strong rebound, retaining our bullish view that further consolidation above support at 1.0493 would be seen with mild upside bias for further gain to resistance at 1.0714 but a daily close above is needed to signal the pullback from 1.0829 top has ended at 1.0493 earlier, bring subsequent rise to 1.0745-50 and then 1.0780-90 but price should falter well below said resistance at 1.0829.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.0650-60 cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.0595-00 would contain downside and bring another rise. Below 1.0560 would risk another test of said support at 1.0525 but break there is needed to abort and signal the erratic rise from 1.0493 low has ended, bring another fall towards this level. Only a drop below support at 1.0493 would signal the fall from 1.0829 top is still in progress for further weakness to support at 1.0454 but a sustained breach below there is needed to signal the rebound from 1.0340 (Jan low) has ended, bring further fall to 1.0400 and later retest of said support which is likely to hold from here.
Recommendation: Hold long entered at 1.0580 for 1.0780 with stop below 1.0560.
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On the weekly chart, euro found good support at 1.0525 last week and has rebounded again, a white candlestick with a relatively long lower shadow was formed, retaining our bullish view that further consolidation above 1.0493 would be seen and mild upside bias remains for another bounce to 1.0770-80, however, only a break of resistance at 1.0829 would suggest another leg of rise from 1.0340 low is underway, bring retracement of early decline to previous resistance at 1.0873 and later 1.0930-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1300-1.0340) but reckon 1.1000 would limit upside and price should falter below 1.1050-60.
On the downside, although pullback to 1.0650-60 is likely, reckon 1.0595-00 would hold and bring another rebound. Below said support at 1.0525 would abort and risk retest of said support at 1.0493-96, a drop below 1.0493-96 would extend the retreat from 1.0829 towards key support at 1.0454 but a sustained breach below this level is needed to signal the rebound from 1.0340 has ended, then further fall to 1.0390-00 and later retest of this January low would follow.
