Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 13 Mar 2017
• Trend bias: Down
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Bearish engulfing pattern
• Time of formation: 16 Feb 2017
• Trend bias: Near term down
Although the Australian dollar fell quite sharply to 85.45 earlier this month, as the pair found support there and staged a rebound to 87.55, retaining our bullishness for another rebound, above said resistance at 87.55 would bring further gain to 88.00-10 but break of resistance at 88.70-75 is needed to signal the retreat from 89.40 has ended, bring another rise towards this level, otherwise, further choppy trading would take place. Looking ahead, only a break of this recent high would confirm medium term upmove from 2016 low of 72.50 has resumed and extend further gain to psychological resistance at 90.00, then towards previous chart resistance at 90.70.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 86.00 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited and said support at 85.45 should remain intact, bring another rebound later. A daily close below said support at 85.45 would suggest top has been formed at 89.40, bring retracement of recent rise to 85.00, then 84.50, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to previous support at 83.75 and bring another rebound in late Q3.
Recommendation: Hold long entered at 85.75 for 88.00 with stop below 84.40.
On the weekly chart, as aussie found support right at the Kijun-Sen and recovered, suggesting consolidation above support at 85.45 would be seen and as long as this level holds, prospect of another rebound to 87.55 is likely, however, break of 88.70-75 resistance is needed to signal the retreat from 89.40 has ended, bring retest of this level which is likely to hold on first testing. Looking ahead, above this recent high would confirm medium term upmove from 72.50 low (formed back in 2016) has resumed and may extend headway to psychological resistance at 90.00, then test of previous resistance at 90.70 but overbought condition should limit upside to 91.50-60 and price should falter below another previous chart resistance at 92.70, bring correction later.
On the downside, below said support at 85.45 (same level as current Kijun-Sen) would suggest a temporary top has possibly been formed at 89.40 and downside risk remains for retracement of recent upmove to bring further fall to 84.95-00, then test of the upper Kumo (now at 84.02) but reckon previous support at 83.75 would limit downside and price should stay above support at 82.55-60, bring rebound later.
