Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 10 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 18 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Despite staging a strong rebound from 0.7808 to 0.7963, as aussie continued meeting strong resistance above 0.7950 area and has retreated, suggesting further consolidation would take place and weakness to 0.7835-40 cannot be ruled out, however, only break of said support at 0.7808 would signal the corrective fall from 0.8066 temporary top is still in progress for retracement of recent upmove to 0.7760 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7571-0.8066) but reckon downside would be limited to previous resistance at 0.7712 and 0.7670-75 would hold from here, bring another rebound later.
On the upside, whilst recovery to 0.7915-20 cannot be ruled out, reckon said resistance at 0.7963 would limit upside and bring another decline. Only a daily close above 0.7963 would suggest low is formed, bring test of resistance at 0.7980 but a sustained breach above 0.8000 is needed to signal the pullback from 0.8066 has ended, bring retest of this level later. Looking ahead, a break above 0.8066 would confirm upmove has resumed and extend the medium term erratic rise from 0.6827 to 0.8163 resistance, then 0.8200, however, loss of near term upward momentum should limit upside and reckon another previous resistance at 0.8295 would hold.
Recommendation: Stand aside for now.
On the weekly chart, although aussie found support just above the Tenkan-Sen and recovered from 0.7808 last week, reckon upside would be limited to 0.7960-65 and as long as resistance at 0.7980 holds, near term downside risk remains for the retreat from 0.8066 temporary top to bring retracement of recent upmove, below 0.7801-08 (current level of the Tenkan-Sen and previous support) would bring correction to 0.7750, however, a sustained breach below previous resistance at 0.7712 is needed to signal a temporary top has been formed, bring test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7698), then towards 0.7600-10 but support at 0.7571 should contain weakness.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited 0.7915-20 and resistance at 0.7963 should hold, bring another retreat. Above 0.7980 resistance would revive near term bullishness and suggest the pullback from 0.8066 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend recent upmove from 0.6827 low to previous resistance at 0.8163, then 0.8250, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to another previous resistance at 0.8295 and price should falter below 0.8390-00, bring retreat later.
