Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 24 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning doji
• Time of formation: 25 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
EUR/CHF – 1.1343
Although the single currency staged another bounce to 1.1479 earlier this week, renewed selling interest emerged there and has retreated again, retaining our view that further consolidation below recent high of 1.1538 (this month’s high) would be seen and test of support at 1.1261 (also same level as the Kijun-Sen) cannot be ruled out, however, a daily close there is needed to signal a temporary top has been formed at 1.1538 and bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1185 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0833-1.1538), having said that, near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon 1.1100-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold, bring rebound later.
On the upside, whilst initial recovery back towards the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1382) cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1440-45 and price should falter below said resistance at 1.1479, bring another retreat later. Only a break of said recent high at 1.1538 would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend headway to 1.1600-10, however, further sharp move beyond 1.1700 should not be repeated and price should falter below 1.1770-80, bring retreat later this month.
Recommendation: Stand aside for this week.
On the weekly chart, the single currency has retreated again after faltering below recent high at 1.1538, retaining our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.1250-60, then towards the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1186) cannot be ruled out, however, a weekly close below the Tenkan-Sen is needed to signal a temporary top is formed at 1.1538, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1100-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0833-1.1538) then test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1085) but reckon support at 1.0987 would remain intact.
On the upside, although initial recovery to 1.1400-10 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1440-50 and price should falter below 1.1500, bring another retreat later. Only a break of said resistance at 1.1538 would revive bullishness and extend the major rise from 0.8426 low for headway to 1.1590-00, then towards 1.1700-10, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1800 and reckon 1.1900-10 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later this month.
