Weekly
   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
   •   Time of formation: 24 Jul 2017
   •   Trend bias: Up
Daily
   •   Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning doji
   •   Time of formation: 25 Jul 2017
   •   Trend bias: Up
EUR/CHF – 1.1335
Despite rising to 1.1538 late last week, the subsequent sharp retreat suggests a temporary top has possibly been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1238), however, a daily close below there is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1185 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0833-1.1538), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon 1.1100-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold, bring rebound later.Â
On the upside, whilst initial recovery back towards the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1400) cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1440 and price should falter below 1.1500, bring another retreat later. Only a break of said last week’s high at 1.1538 would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend headway to 1.1600-10, however, further sharp move beyond 1.1700 should not be repeated and price should falter below 1.1770-80, bring retreat later this month.
Recommendation: Exit long entered at 1.1335 and stand aside for this week.
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On the weekly chart, although the single currency extended recent upmove to as high as 1.1538 late last week, the subsequent retreat looks set to form a black candlestick this week, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.1250-60, then towards the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1186) cannot be ruled out, however, a weekly close below the Tenkan-Sen is needed to signal a temporary top is formed, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1100-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0833-1.1538) then test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1085) but reckon support at 1.0987 would remain intact.
On the upside, although initial recovery to 1.1400-10 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1440-50 and price should falter below 1.1500, bring another retreat later. Only a break of said last week’s high at 1.1538 would revive bullishness and extend the major rise from 0.8426 low for headway to 1.1590-00, then towards 1.1700-10, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1800 and reckon 1.1900-10 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later this month. Â