Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 24 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning doji
• Time of formation: 25 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
EUR/CHF – 1.1335
Despite rising to 1.1538 late last week, the subsequent sharp retreat suggests a temporary top has possibly been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1238), however, a daily close below there is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1185 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0833-1.1538), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon 1.1100-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold, bring rebound later.
On the upside, whilst initial recovery back towards the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1400) cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1440 and price should falter below 1.1500, bring another retreat later. Only a break of said last week’s high at 1.1538 would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend headway to 1.1600-10, however, further sharp move beyond 1.1700 should not be repeated and price should falter below 1.1770-80, bring retreat later this month.
Recommendation: Exit long entered at 1.1335 and stand aside for this week.
On the weekly chart, although the single currency extended recent upmove to as high as 1.1538 late last week, the subsequent retreat looks set to form a black candlestick this week, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.1250-60, then towards the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1186) cannot be ruled out, however, a weekly close below the Tenkan-Sen is needed to signal a temporary top is formed, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1100-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0833-1.1538) then test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1085) but reckon support at 1.0987 would remain intact.
On the upside, although initial recovery to 1.1400-10 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1440-50 and price should falter below 1.1500, bring another retreat later. Only a break of said last week’s high at 1.1538 would revive bullishness and extend the major rise from 0.8426 low for headway to 1.1590-00, then towards 1.1700-10, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1800 and reckon 1.1900-10 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later this month.
