Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 24 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning doji
• Time of formation: 25 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
EUR/CHF – 1.1477
As recent upmove has accelerated after early anticipated resumption of medium term upmove from 1.0622 (2016 low), adding credence to our bullish view and upside bias remains for this move to extend further gain to 1.1550, then 1.1600-10, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1700, reckon 1.1770-80 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later this month.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.1400-10 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 1.1330-35 and bring another upmove later. A daily close below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1266) would defer and bring test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1221) but break there is needed to signal top is formed, bring retracement of recent rally to 1.1150-55, then towards 1.1100 but price should stay well above support at 1.1007 and the single currency shall head north again from there.
Recommendation: Buy again at 1.1335 for 1.1535 with stop below 1.1235.
On the weekly chart, last week’s rally formed a long white candlestick, adding credence to our bullish view that recent rise from 1.0622 is still in progress and the breach of previous resistance at 1.1201 suggests the major rise from 0.8426 low is still in progress and may extend headway to 1.1590-00, then towards 1.1700-10, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1800 and reckon 1.1900-10 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later this month.
On the downside, although initial pullback to 1.1400, then 1.1330-40 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1179) would contain downside and bring another rise later. A weekly close below the Tenkan-Sen would defer and bring correction to 1.1100 but reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1078) would limit downside and support at 1.1007 should remain intact, bring another rise in late Q3.
