Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 16 Jan 2017
• Trend bias: Down
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 18 Apr 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
GBP/USD – 1.3193
Cable found renewed buying interest at 1.2933 and has resumed recent upmove, dampening our near term bearishness and upside risk remains for medium term rise from 1.1986 low to extend further gain to 1.3245-50 (61.8% projection of 1.1986-1.3048 measuring from 1.2589) and possibly 1.3300-10, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond resistance at 1.3425 and price should falter well below 1.3500-05 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5018-1.1986), risk from there is seen for a retreat later.
On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.3095-00 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3067) would hold and bring another rise later to aforesaid upside targets. Below 1.2950-55 would defer and risk test of support at 1.2999, then towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2953), however, only a sustained breach below support at 1.2933 would abort and signal a temporary top is formed instead, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.2890, then towards previous support at 1.2812 which is expected to contain downside.
Recommendation: Stand aside for this week.
On the weekly chart, the British pound has risen again after brief pullback just below 1.3000 level and the breach of resistance at 1.3126 signals the medium term rise from 1.1986 low is still in progress, hence upside bias is seen for this move to extend further gain to the upper Kumo (now at 1.3247), then 1.3300-10, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to previous resistance at 1.3425 and reckon 1.3500-05 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5018-1.1986) would hold, price should falter below 1.3670-75, bring another decline in Q4.
On the downside, although initial pullback to 1.3095-00 is likely, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3050-55 and said support at 1.2999 should hold, bring another rise later. A weekly close below 1.2999 would suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring test of 1.2933 support, break there would add credence to this view, then retracement of recent rise to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.2895) and later 1.2812 support would follow, however, downside would be limited to 1.2700-10 and price should stay well above support at 1.2589, bring a rebound later.
