Weekly
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Doji
- Time of formation: 26 Sep 2016
- Trend bias: Sideways
Daily
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
- Time of formation: 25 Oct 2016
- Trend bias: Near term up
USD/CHF – 1.0115
Despite rising marginally to 1.0146, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat suggests consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.0065-70 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0004) and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.0146 would extend the erratic rise from 0.9861 (Jan’s low) to 1.0195-00, having said that, reckon key resistance at 1.0248 would cap upside and bring retreat later. Only a daily close above this level would signal recent correction from 1.0344 top has ended at 0.9861, bring further gain to 1.0300 and later retest of 1.0344 which is is likely to hold from here.
On the downside, whilst test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0078) cannot be ruled out, reckon support at 1.0009 would hold and bring another rise later. Only a daily close below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0004) would abort and suggest top is formed, bring weakness to indicated support at 0.9967, a drop below there would add credence to this view and suggest the rebound from 0.9861 has ended, bring further fall to 0.9935-40 but said support at 0.9861 should hold. A drop below this level would revive bearishness and extend erratic decline from 1.0344 top for retracement of early upmove to 0.9850-55 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9550-1.0344) and possibly towards 0.9800.
Recommendation: Stand aside for this week.
On the weekly chart, although dollar edged higher again last week to 1.0146, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat suggest consolidation below this level would be seen initially, however, as long as support at 0.9967 holds, mild upside bias remains for another rise, above said resistance would extend gain to 1.0195-00 but price should falter below key resistance at 1.0248, bring further choppy trading. A sustained breach above this level would signal the retreat from 1.0344 has ended, bring further gain to 1.0335-44 resistance area but break there is needed to signal early upmove has resumed for headway to 1.0400-10 and later 1.0500.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0055) and support at 1.0009 should hold, bring another rise. Only a weekly close below support at 0.9967 would suggest the rebound from 0.9861 has ended, bring test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9947), break there would add credence to this view, bring further fall to 0.9900, then retest of 0.9861. A break of this level would revive near term bearishness for the fall from 1.0344 to bring retracement of early upmove to 0.9850-55 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and possibly towards the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9722), however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9690-00 and price should stay well above support at 0.9550.
