Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 7 Mar 2017
• Trend bias: Sideways
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning star
• Time of formation: 9 May 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
USD/CHF – 0.9467
Although the greenback has fallen again after brief bounce to 0.9622 last week, adding credence to our view that recent decline from 1.0344 (2016 high) is still in progress and downside bias remains for this move to extend weakness to 0.9390-00, then towards 0.9330-40, having said that, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9290-00 and price should stay above 0.9255-60, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later.
On the upside, whilst recovery to 0.9520-25 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.9570) would limit upside and bring another decline to aforesaid downside targets. Above said resistance at 0.9622 would defer and suggest a temporary low is possibly formed and bring a stronger rebound to 0.9659, break there would confirm and signal correction of recent decline has commenced, then further gain to resistance at 0.9701 would follow but still reckon upside would be limited to 0.9738 resistance and price should falter below previous resistance at 0.9771.
Recommendation: Sell at 0.9570 for 0.9370 with stop above 0.9670
On the weekly chart, last week’s selloff formed a long black candlestick and price broke below indicated previous support at 0.9444 last week, adding credence to our bearish view that recent decline from 1.0344 (2016 high) is still in progress and downside bias remains for weakness to 0.9350, then towards 0.9290-00, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9250 and reckon 0.9200-10 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a rebound later.
On the upside, although initial recovery to 0.9520-25 cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited to 0.9590-00 and price should falter below 0.9622-23 (previous resistance and current level of the Tenkan-Sen), bring another decline later. A weekly close above said resistance at 0.9622-23 would suggest a temporary low is possibly formed, bring a stronger rebound to 0.9659, then test of resistance at 0.9701 but above latter level is needed to provide confirmation, bring retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 0.9771 , however, still reckon resistance at 0.9808 would limit upside and price should falter well below the lower Kumo (now at 0.9894).
