Weekly
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Hanging man
- Time of formation: 22 May 2016
- Trend bias: Down
Daily
- Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
- Time of formation: 15 Feb 2017
- Trend bias: Down
USD/JPY – 113.73
Despite last week’s late rise to 114.75, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below previous chart resistance at 114.96, suggesting further consolidation within recent established broad range would be seen and weakness to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 113.22) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 112.75-80 and 112.20-25, price should stay well above support at 111.69, bring rebound later. Only a break of said support at 111.59-69 would extend the decline from 118.66 top to previous support at 111.36 but reckon downside would be limited to 110.50-60 and price should stay well above 109.90-95 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 101.19-118.66).
On the upside, whilst recovery to 114.20-25 cannot be ruled out, reckon last week’s high at 114.75 would hold. Only above resistance at 114.96 would suggest an upside break of recent established broad range, bring further gain to 115.60-65 but upside should be limited to 116.00 and price should falter well below 117.00, bring another decline later.
Recommendation : Stand aside for this week.
On the weekly chart, the greenback staged a strong rebound after holding above previous support at 111.59, suggesting further consolidation above this level would be seen and test of 114.96 resistance cannot be ruled out, however, a weekly close above there is needed to suggest the pullback from 118.66 top has ended at 111.59, bring further gain to resistance area at 115.38-62, Once this level is penetrated, this would provide confirmation and signal early upmove has resumed for stronger rebound to 116.40-50, then test of 116.87 resistance first.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 112.80-90 and b ring another rebound. Below 112.00 would bring another test of 111.59-69 support but break there is needed to signal the retreat from 118.66 top is still in progress for retracement of recent upmove to support at 111.36, then towards 110.90-95 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 101.19-118.66), however, reckon downside would be limited to 110.00 and the Kijun-Sen (now at 109.38), bring another rebound later.
