Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting doji
• Time of formation: 20 Feb 2017
• Trend bias: Sideways
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Bearish engulfing pattern
• Time of formation: 21 Mar 2017
• Trend bias: Near term down
As aussie has retreated after rising to 0.7712 late last week, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and minor correction to 0.7575-80 is likely, however, reckon downside would be limited to support at 0.7535 and 0.7490-00 would hold and bring another rise later, above 0.7685 would bring retest of 0.7712 but break there is needed to extend recent upmove from 0.7329 low to previous resistance at 0.7750, having said that, only break there would retain bullishness and encourage for headway to 0.7800-10 first.
On the downside, whilst pullback to 0.7575-80 is likely, reckon indicated support at 0.7535 would limit downside and bring another rise later. A daily close below 0.7500 would suggest the rebound from 0.7329 low has ended and bring at least a correction of recent rise to 0.7455-60, then towards 0.7400-10 but support at 0.7372 should remain intact. Looking ahead, only below 0.7372 would revive bearishness and bring retest of 0.7329.
Recommendation: Buy at 0.7510 for 0.7710 with stop below 0.7410.
On the weekly chart, aussie traded with a firm undertone after staging a strong rebound from 0.7329, adding credence to our view that the retreat from 0.7750 has ended at 0.7329 and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to 0.7680, however, break there is needed to add credence to this view and bring retest of this level later. Looking ahead, only a break above 0.7750 would another leg of the major rise from 0.6827 low is underway for retest of 0.7778, then towards last year’s high at 0.7835.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 0.7500-10 and bring another rise. Below the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7458) would prolong consolidation and risk weakness to 0.7410-15 but break of support at 0.7372 is needed to signal the rebound from 0.7329 has ended, bring retest of this level first. A break below there would extend recent decline from 0.7750 to 0.7290-00 and possibly towards 0.7230, however, downside should be limited to 0.7200 and price should stay well above previous support at 0.7158, risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place later.
