Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 03 May 2016
• Trend bias: Down
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 3 May 2016
• Trend bias: Sideways
EUR/USD – 1.1384
The single currency has surged again after brief pullback to 1.1172, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.1450, then 1.1480-85 (50% projection of 1.0570-1.1296 measuring from 1.1119, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1565-70 (61.8% projection) and reckon previous chart resistance at 1.1616 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later this month.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.1325-30 and possibly 1.1292 support cannot be ruled out, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1278) would limit downside and bring another upmove later to our aforesaid upside targets. Below said support at 1.1172 would defer and suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring correction towards support at 1.1109-19 but only a daily close below there would provide confirmation, bring further fall to 1.1050 and then test of previous resistance at 1.1025.
Recommendation: Buy at 1.1270 for 1.1470 with stop below 1.1170.
On the weekly chart, last week’s rally above previous resistance at 1.1296 confirms recent upmove from 1.0340 low is still in progress and a long white candlestick was formed, hence bullishness remains for this move to extend further gain to 1.1500-10, then 1.1565-70 (61.8% projection of 1.0570-1.1296 measuring from 1.1119), however, near term overbought condition would prevent sharp move beyond previous chart resistance at 1.1616 and price should falter below 1.1700-10, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 1.1260-70 and support at 1.1172 should hold, bring another upmove later. A drop below 1.1172 would risk test of 1.1109-19 support but a weekly close below there is needed to signal a temporary top is formed, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.10000, then test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0950) but downside should be limited to 1.0900 and previous support at 1.0839 should remain intact.
